Updated automatically from live Bitcoin prices. The signal changes only on Sunday's daily close (8 PM ET).
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Not financial advice. This site shows the output of a rules-based strategy for educational purposes. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and consider a licensed advisor.
Think of the 200-week average as Bitcoin's "normal price" over roughly the last four years. Right now that's about —.
When Bitcoin drops near or below its normal price, that has historically been a great time to buy. Every big crash bottomed out right around there: December 2018, March 2020, 2022–23 and summer 2026.
When the price shoots way above normal, 2.5 times or more (about — today), the next year has usually gone badly. A year after buying at that level, the typical result was down —, and the price was higher only — of the time.
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What happened a year after buying, for every day since 2016, grouped by range.
| Price vs normal | Typical 12-mo change | Higher a year later |
|---|
Past results, not a promise.
In short: buy when it's cheap, be patient when it's expensive.
Answer two questions and we'll turn this week's signal into a plain instruction for your own money. The strategy is simple: when the signal says be in Bitcoin, all of the money you've set aside is in Bitcoin. When it says be in cash, all of it is in cash.
We use this week's Sunday closing price by default. If the price has moved, enter what you see on your exchange for a more exact amount.
Your numbers are saved on this device only and are never sent anywhere. This is the output of a rules-based strategy, not financial advice.
Historical backtest, computed through September 2026. Hypothetical results, not actual trading.
Backtest with Coinbase fees and slippage, trading at Monday's open after each Sunday signal. Rules were chosen on 2015–2020 data; 2021 onward is the fairer test.
Zoom any chart with the + and − buttons, by pinching on a phone, or with ⌘/Ctrl + scroll or a double-click on a computer. Drag to move around once zoomed.
Log scale.
Daily prices, updated every day from live data.
| Bought | Why | Buy price | Sold | Sell price | Days | Result |
|---|
Bitcoin's big moves happen in long trends. Stay in while it's rising.
Even in a downtrend, buy when price drops under its long-term floor. That's when it's been cheapest.
Downtrend and not cheap yet: that's where the −70% to −80% crashes lived. Wait it out.
All-in or all-out, about 2 buys and 2 sells a year. Fewer sales means fewer taxable events; holding a spot Bitcoin ETF inside an IRA avoids them entirely.
| Week of | BTC | 150d avg | 200w avg | Zone | Signal | Instruction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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