Updated automatically from live Bitcoin prices. The signal changes only on Sunday's daily close (8 PM ET).
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Not financial advice. This site shows the output of a rules-based strategy for educational purposes. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Do your own research and consider a licensed advisor.
Bitcoin's major lows have landed at or just under its 200-week average: December 2018 (right on it), March 2020, 2022–23 and summer 2026. The further price stretches above it, the worse the next year has tended to be.
| Price vs 200-wk avg | Median next 12 mo | Up after 12 mo |
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Every day since 2016, grouped by zone. Past zones, not a promise.
Adding new money? Put it in when the signal says hold or buy, and when price is in the lower two zones. Above 2.5×, historically, patience has paid.
Answer two questions and we'll turn this week's signal into a plain instruction for your own money. The strategy is simple: when the signal says be in Bitcoin, all of the money you've set aside is in Bitcoin. When it says be in cash, all of it is in cash.
We use this week's Sunday closing price by default. If the price has moved, enter what you see on your exchange for a more exact amount.
Your numbers are saved on this device only and are never sent anywhere. This is the output of a rules-based strategy, not financial advice.
Historical backtest, computed through September 2026. Hypothetical results, not actual trading.
Backtest with Coinbase fees and slippage, trading at Monday's open after each Sunday signal. Rules were chosen on 2015–2020 data; 2021 onward is the fairer test.
Log scale.
| Bought | Why | Buy price | Sold | Sell price | Days | Result |
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Bitcoin's big moves happen in long trends. Stay in while it's rising.
Even in a downtrend, buy when price drops under its long-term floor. That's when it's been cheapest.
Downtrend and not cheap yet: that's where the −70% to −80% crashes lived. Wait it out.
All-in or all-out, about 2 buys and 2 sells a year. Fewer sales means fewer taxable events; holding a spot Bitcoin ETF inside an IRA avoids them entirely.
| Week of | BTC | 150d avg | 200w avg | Zone | Signal | Instruction |
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